Anchoring
≈ 1 MIN · 1 ESTIMATE (BY DESIGN) · Judgement
What this is about
A number that obviously has nothing to do with the matter pulls anyway: in 1974 Tversky and Kahneman let a wheel of fortune fall on 10 or 65 before their participants’ eyes, then asked for the share of African states in the United Nations.
Those who had seen the 10 estimated a median of 25 per cent; those who had seen the 65, 45 per cent — the same knowledge, twenty points apart, produced by a wheel that was recognisably chance. Even payment for accuracy did not help.
How it runs
- The wheel falls on a random number — which one, your browser’s chance decides.
- First question: is the share of African states in the UN higher or lower than that number?
- Second question: your estimate in per cent. ONE estimate — a second would already be anchored.
Runs entirely in your browser — nothing is transmitted or stored.
You can stop the run at any time.
Your finding
What it means
Limits of this experiment
- One person, one anchor — the original compared two groups.
- Knowing the effect makes you correct against it (and often anchor anyway).
- The true share shifts over the years; measured is the pull, not the knowledge.
→ Case file 008 · KAHNEMAN→ Topic: Measurement and Method→ Glossary: Anchoring→ Glossary: Heuristic